{"id":1911,"date":"2021-11-02T14:52:12","date_gmt":"2021-11-02T05:52:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/?p=1911"},"modified":"2021-11-04T00:33:45","modified_gmt":"2021-11-03T15:33:45","slug":"%eb%b3%b4%ed%98%b8%eb%ac%b4%ec%97%ad%ec%a3%bc%ec%9d%98%ec%9d%98-%eb%8f%84%eb%9e%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/?p=1911","title":{"rendered":"\ubcf4\ud638\ubb34\uc5ed\uc8fc\uc758\ub85c\uc758 \ud68c\uadc0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8\uc911\ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uacfc \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9, \uadf8 \uc548\uc5d0\uc11c \uad6d\uc81c\ubb34\uc5ed\uc9c8\uc11c\uc758 \uc7ac\ud3b8\uacfc \ubcf4\ud638\ubb34\uc5ed\uc8fc\uc758\uc758 \uac15\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\ub294 \uc138\ub300\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uac00\uc838\uc628 \uacb0\uacfc\ub4e4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \ub9ce\uc774 \uc778\uc6a9\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc778 <strong>Fajgelbaum, Goldberg, Kennedy and Khandelwal\uc758 2020\ub144 QJE \ub17c\ubb38<\/strong>\uc744 \uac04\ub2e8\ud788 \uc18c\uac1c\ud574 \ubcf4\ub824 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>Fajgelbaum\uacfc \ub3d9\ub8cc \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc758 \uc8fc\ub41c \ubaa9\uc801\uc740 \uc5ed\uc2dc 2018\ub144 \uc788\uc5c8\ub358 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \ud0c0\uad6d(\uc8fc\ub85c \uc911\uad6d)\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \uac00\uc838\uc628 \ub2e8\uae30\uc801 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ubc1d\ud788\ub294 \uac83\uc774\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uad6c\uc758 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ubc1c\uacac\ub4e4\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>1. \uc218\uc785\uad00\uc138\ub97c \ubd80\uac00\ud558\uba74 \uc218\uc785\uc0c1\ud488\uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc62c\ub77c\uac11\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub54c \uc774 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84\uc744 \uacf5\uae09\uc790\uc640 \uc218\uc694\uc790 \ub4e4\uc774 \uc5bc\ub9c8\uc529 \ubd80\ub2f4\ud558\ub294\uac00, \uace7 \uad00\uc138\ubd80\uacfc\uc758 \uadc0\ucc29(tariff incidence) \ubb38\uc81c\ub97c \ubc1d\ud788\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uad00\uc138 \ubd80\uacfc\uc758 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294\ub370 \uc788\uc5b4 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uacfc\uc81c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc758 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ubc1c\uacac \uc911 \ud558\ub098\ub294 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1 \uae30\uac04 \uc911 \ubbf8\uad6d \uce21\uc758 \uc218\uc785\uad00\uc138 \ubd80\uacfc\uc758 \uadc0\ucc29\uc740 \uac70\uc758 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ubd80\ub2f4\ud558\uc600\ub2e4\ub294, \uc989 \uad00\uc138 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84\uc758 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc740 \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc804\uac00(complete pass-through)\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ubc1c\uacac\ud558\uc600\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uad00\uc138 \ubd80\uacfc\uc758 \ub300\uc0c1\uc774 \ub41c \uc0c1\ud488\ub4e4\uc758 \uc218\uc785\uc561\uacfc \uc218\uc785\ub7c9\uc740 \ubaa8\ub450 \ud070 \uac10\uc18c\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\ub294\ub370 (\uc0c1\ud488-\uc218\ucd9c\uad6d \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c 32%, \uc0c1\ud488 \ub2e8\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c 5% \uc218\uc785 \uac10\uc18c), \uad00\uc138\ubd80\uacfc \uc774\uc804 \uc218\uc785\ub2e8\uc704\uac00\uaca9\uc740 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub358 \ubc18\uba74 \uad00\uc138 \ud3ec\ud568 \uc218\uc785\ub2e8\uc704\uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud788 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc5d0 \ub354\ud574 \uc678\uad6d\uc758 \ubcf4\ubcf5\uad00\uc138 \ubd80\uacfc\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \uce21 \uc218\ucd9c \uac10\uc18c\ub3c4 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud574\uc11c \uc0c1\ud488\ub2e8\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c 9.9% \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud55c\uac00\uc9c0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud560 \uc810\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 \ub2e4\ub978 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc5f0\uad6c\ub4e4, \uc608\ucee8\ub300 Cavallo, Gopinath, Neiman and Tang (2021 AER:Insights <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aeaweb.org\/articles?id=10.1257\/aeri.20190536\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Link<\/a>)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc720\uc0ac\ud558\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a9\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>2. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc758 \uacb0\uacfc\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \ubc0f \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc785\uc740 \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc789\uc5ec \uc190\uc2e4\ubd84\uc740 $510\uc5b5, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc804\uccb4 GDP\uc758 0.27%\uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \ucd94\uc0b0\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \uad00\uc138\ubd80\uacfc\ub85c \uc5bb\uc740 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc790 \uc789\uc5ec \uc774\ub4dd\ubd84\uacfc \uad00\uc138 \uc218\uc785\uae4c\uc9c0 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0 \uac78\uce5c \uc190\uc2e4\ubd84\uc744 \ucd94\uc815\ud574 \ubcf4\uba74 \uadf8\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc801\uc740 $72\uc5b5 \uc815\ub3c4\uc758 \uc190\uc2e4\ub85c \ucd94\uc0b0\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubbf8\uc911\ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc218\uc785 \uce21(\uc18c\ube44\uc790 \ubc0f \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc790)\uacfc \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc790 \ubc0f \uc815\ubd80 \uac04\uc5d0 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \ubd80\uc758 \uc7ac\ubd84\ubc30\uac00 \uc77c\uc5b4\ub0ac\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>3. \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc73c\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d \ub0b4 \uc5d0\uc11c \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc774 \ud61c\ud0dd\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc774 \ud53c\ud574\ub97c \ubcf4\uc558\ub294\uc9c0\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud574 \ubcf4\uba74 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uce74\uc6b4\ud2f0(county) \ub2e8\uc704\ubcc4\ub85c \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc5d0 \ub178\ucd9c\ub41c \uc815\ub3c4\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud574\ubcf4\uba74, \uc5ed\uc2dc \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5\uc774 \ubc1c\ub2ec\ud55c \uc624\ub300\ud638 \uc778\uadfc \ubbf8 \uc911\uc11c\ubd80\uc640 \ubd81\ub3d9\ubd80 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc774 \uc218\uc785\uad00\uc138\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc778 \ubcf4\ud638\ub97c \ubc1b\uc740 \ubc18\uba74, \uc911\uc11c\ubd80 \ub18d\ucd0c \uc9c0\uc5ed\uacfc \uc11c\ubd80 \uc0b0\uc545\uc9c0\uc5ed\uc740 \ubcf4\ubcf5\uad00\uc138\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc2e4\uc9c8\uc784\uae08 \ub4f1\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4 \ub354 \ud070 \ud53c\ud574\ub97c \uc785\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc815\uce58\uacbd\uc81c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uba74 \uc8fc\ub85c \uacf5\ud654\ub2f9-\ubbfc\uc8fc\ub2f9 \uacbd\ud569 \uc9c0\uc5ed\ub4e4\uc774 \uc0c1\ub300\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\ud638\uad00\uc138\uc758 \ud61c\ud0dd\uc744 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc774 \ubc1b\uc740 \ubc18\uba74, \ubcf4\ubcf5\uad00\uc138\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ud53c\ud574\ub294 \uacf5\ud654\ub2f9 \uac15\uc138\uc9c0\uc5ed\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ub410\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. (\ucc38\uace0\ub85c,\u00a0 \ub2e4\ub978 \uad00\ub828 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0 \uc758\ud558\uba74 \uc774\ud6c4 2018\ub144 \uc758\ud68c\uc120\uac70\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\ubcf5\uad00\uc138\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \ud53c\ud574\uac00 \ucef8\ub358 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uacf5\ud654\ub2f9 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc728\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\ud55c \ubc18\uba74,\u00a0 \uc218\uc785\uad00\uc138 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc758 \uc218\ud61c\ub97c \uc785\uc740 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc720\uc758\ubbf8\ud55c \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. Blanchard, Chor and Li 2019 WP <a href=\"https:\/\/faculty.tuck.dartmouth.edu\/images\/uploads\/faculty\/emily-blanchard\/Blanchard-Bown-Chor-Trade-War_November.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Link<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>\uc544\ub798 \uadf8\ub9bc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc67c\ucabd\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc218\uc785\uad00\uc138 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub178\ucd9c \uc815\ub3c4, \uc624\ub978\ucabd\uc740 \ud0c0\uad6d\uc758 \ubcf4\ubcf5 \uad00\uc138\uc5d0 \ub178\ucd9c\ub41c \uc815\ub3c4\ub97c \uce74\uc6b4\ud2f0 \ub2e8\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uadf8\ub9b0 \uc9c0\ub3c4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-1908\" src=\"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/1-1024x354.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"354\" srcset=\"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/1-1024x354.png 1024w, http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/1-300x104.png 300w, http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/1-768x266.png 768w, http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/1.png 1290w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Return to Protectionism<\/strong> (Pablo Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi Goldberg, Patrick Kennedy, Amit Khandelwal 2020 Quarterly Journal of Economics)<\/p>\n<p>\ub17c\ubb38 \ub9c1\ud06c <a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/qje\/article\/135\/1\/1\/5626442\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Link<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8\uc911\ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uacfc \ucf54\ub85c\ub09819 \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9, \uadf8 \uc548\uc5d0\uc11c \uad6d\uc81c\ubb34\uc5ed\uc9c8\uc11c\uc758 \uc7ac\ud3b8\uacfc \ubcf4\ud638\ubb34\uc5ed\uc8fc\uc758\uc758 \uac15\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\ub294 \uc138\ub300\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc804\uc7c1\uc774 \uac00\uc838\uc628 \uacb0\uacfc\ub4e4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \ub9ce\uc774 \uc778\uc6a9\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc778 &hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[724,347,501,16],"tags":[705,754,755],"class_list":["post-1911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-724","category-347","category-501","category-16","tag-705","tag-754","tag-755"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1911"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1911\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1932,"href":"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1911\/revisions\/1932"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/researchbeetle.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}